A new poll just released shows Navy SEAL veteran and political newcomer Tim Sheehy beating Congressman Matt Rosendale (R-MT02) in a potential US Senate Republican primary.

I always take polls with a grain of salt. It's also worth noting that the poll comes from a pro-Sheehy super PAC. That being said, this is from President Donald Trump's pollster, so this guy isn't guy to publicly release something and put his name on it unless he thinks there is something there.

If the Big Sky Country primary were held today, Sheehy would have a three-point lead over Rosendale. This would be the case if those polled were to include all primary candidates or if those polled only had to consider Sheehy and Rosendale. However, given that the poll has a four percent margin of error, it would mean that the race to become the Montana Senate Republican primary nominee is virtually tied.

 

The poll also showed that both Sheehy and Rosendale are popular with GOP primary voters.

Why is this significant? Two reasons. One: it's early. Two: Manchin is out.

It's early. You would expect a sitting member of Congress who was the GOP Senate candidate in 2018 to outpoll any challenger this early. Montana's primary election isn't until June. That's plenty of time to build up your name ID. That being said, you can't wait till June to start taking on liberal Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) who will have hundreds of millions of dollars backing him over the course of the next year.

Manchin is out. As we told you last week, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) is NOT running for re-election. That puts an even bigger target on "Tehran Jon" Tester in Montana.

Senator Steve Daines (R-MT): That takes us to 50-50. We win Montana, we've got the majority.